World War 3

So I made a few tweets about this but I wanted to go into more detail and explain a few things.

The general election in the UK on May 7th was won by the Conservative Party [The Tories] with a majority.  That was something not many people, if anyone, was expecting.  In the run up to the election the polls suggested a hung parliament.  Even those who voted Tory in the election were not expecting a majority they thought at best it would be a coalition.  The exit poll on the day that was conducted showed this would be the case too however the outcome we now know was a majority.

Let me first say I can see a case for red or blue in our elections, and I would consider myself a swing voter.  I consider policy first and foremost and the reason I was opposed to this government was because of policy, not the fact that it was blue.  I am fiscally conservative and believe there are substantial cuts that need to be made but I believe they need to be made in a socially responsible way which I do not believe they have been in the last 5 years nor do I believe they will be in the next 5 years.

I am not being a sore loser with this election either, I am genuinely intrigued over the outcome and to me something does not add up.  This was only exacerbated when I learned after the election that a month ago a van was stolen in London with 200,000 blank postal ballots and that a number of constituencies had raised concerns over a "last minute" rush of postal ballots.  There are various rumours and assertions that connect these two incidents and while I am not entirely convinced myself I am quite disturbed by the fact that the Tories gained 37 seats with a collective margin of 250,000 votes, narrow down to 30 seats and you hit 200,000 petty much on the nail.

The mathematical possibility that the election was rigged is valid.  The real world application of this theory owing to the way in which postal votes work in the UK is also valid and entirely possible.  There were also postal ballots sent out which did not include candidates from UKIP, Labour and The Greens.  These are all very concerning.

We can move on from that for a moment and consider any real reason why anyone would want to steal our election.  The sadistic argument of wanting to rob from the poor and give to the rich while it might be altruistic to uphold and decry, the reality is that the possible reasons lie beyond our borders.  Within the last few years, the growing hostility of Russia has been a cause for concern for many in Europe.  The invasion of Georgia and annexation of Ossetta.  The invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea.  The provocative flights of Russian fighter planes over UK airspace.  These are all acts of hostility.  In response whether you choose to acknowledge it or not we have retaliated through economic warfare.  Russia is being brought to its knees very slowly.  Economic sanctions, together with the fall in oil prices which are influenced heavily by western nations can not be denied to have a negative impact on Russia.

The United States has begun the process of lifting sanctions on Cuba which lasted decades and taken steps towards restoring diplomatic relations.  This is not for want of peace or reconciliation, this is purely strategic in an effort to avoid another Cuban Missile Crisis.  There is a full scale war coming between Russia and the EU and by association, NATO.

What bearing does this have an UK elections?  Very little other than one key point - the Brexit.  The Brexit [British Exit] from the EU will come before a full scale war for a number of reasons.  First and foremost is financial.  The UK is not a part of the Euro, however it is not free from influence from the European Central Bank, and as a member of the EU it is adversely affected by any negative economic activity within the EU.  There is also the cause for concern over immigration as one of the western most nations of the EU in the event of a war with Russia many would seek to put as much distance as they can.  There is also the case for funding.  The UK remains to be one of the largest economies in Europe and despite everything our press likes to report and convince us of otherwise the plain and simple truth is we are not broke.  We are considerably rich, our credit rating although not AAA with all agencies still remains high.  Our spending on defence is also one of the highest in Europe.

If there is a war coming with Russia it is in the best interest of the UK and the rest of Europe for us to be outside the EU when it happens.  I will admit this may seem convoluted to some people and crazy to others.  Conspiracy theories exist for a reason.  They are most often based in a modicum of truth.  "If it was true we would know, someone would have said" - this argument is fundamentally flawed by virtue of the fact that you do not believe anyone who speaks anything other than what you already believe to be true.  "A person who believes a lie will fall deaf to the truth no matter how loud it is spoken"