Y2K and Brexit

"It's just like Y2K that was a lot of hype over nothing"

I've seen this sentiment expressed many times over the last 16 years in reference to many things that were predicted and then did not come to pass.  I find a grain of humour in this sentiment because those who express it show themselves to be nothing but ignorant.

For those that don't know what Y2K was I'll explain it as simple as I can.  Pre-2000 the vast majority of computer systems were developed to use 2 digit years for dates.  Now I know you'll think this was stupid and short sighted and I agree it was.  Nevertheless these systems represented dates in this way and the year 1997 was 97, and 1998 was 98, and 1999 was 99.  The problem was that when the clock ticked over on December 31st 1999, the year would tick from 99 to 00 and these systems would interpret that as 1900 not 2000.

There were a series of predictions made by large software companies that this change would cause considerable impact and catastrophe.  It became known and referred to in the media as the "Y2K bug" - Y = Year, 2K = 2000.  The predictions that these catastrophes would come to pass were not wildly overactive imaginations they were simple conclusions drawn from simulations and various tests of the programs that comprised these systems.  Make no shadow of a doubt if nothing had been done, all that was predicted would have come to pass. 

It didn't happen though, and the fact that it didn't happen was seen as many as proof that this was a fantasy or mass hysteria that was unwarranted.  This view is ignorant.  The reason it did not happen is because billions were invested and millions of man hours around the world were devoted to upgrading those computer systems.  Archived versions of many still exist and you can see for yourself what happens when the date changes.  For many date and time critical services e.g. banking or air traffic control, the fact that everything in "00" happens before "99" causes unexpected consequences e.g. bank accounts having zero balances as they weren't opened until after that date.

Since June 23rd when the UK voted to leave the European Union some of the predictions on the consequences have come to pass while others have not.  In the same way that Y2K deniers are ignorant to the investment that was made, many people who voted leave are ignorant to what has happened in the country over the last 2 months.  For a start, the fact the financial systems of the UK have not collapsed is seen by many leave voters as proof the remain camp was fear mongering before the referendum. 

This view is ignorant and dismisses the investment and effort that has been poured into the UK's financial sector to prevent collapse.  In 2008/9 when the financial crisis occurred the banks in the UK were bailed out by the government with £124 billion.  This bailout was met with public opposition, hostility, and anger directed towards bankers that persists to this day.  Yet, since June 23rd when the UK voted to leave, our financial sector has had another bailout, more than last time, this cost the UK taxpayer £150 billion - something which nobody seems to care about.  Leave voters have not echoed the anger they expressed in 2008/9 towards the banking sector.  After the crisis a number of safety nets were put in place to prevent the financial sector from collapsing in future, the most critical of these measures was a deposit buffer which banks would need to retain to ensure they remain liquid.  Since the referendum this buffer has been abolished to allow the banks to lend out a further £100 billion.  In other words the rising cost of running the Cruise Ship UK has led the Bank of England to tell it to sell its lifeboats to reduce its ticket price, anyone ever seen Titanic?  Do you know what happens when you don't have enough lifeboats?

The crux of the argument the remain vote still carries is epitomised by Ian Hislop's words:

"After an election or a referendum, even if you lose the vote you are entitled to go on making the argument.  When a government in this country wins an election the opposition does not say 'That's absolutely right I have nothing to say' for five years"

So let me reiterate the point: we have not actually left yet.  We are still a member of the EU.  Article 50 has not been invoked.  In the 2 months that have passed since people voted to leave we have suffered a financial crash bigger than that of 2008/9 and had to pump money into the country that didn't exist in the first place.  Our currency has fallen against the dollar to it's lowest point in 30 years.  A number of big businesses have gone bust with many more freezing recruitment.  We are still in Summer months and seasonal hiring is buoying our jobs market to an extent.  The worst is not over and has not even begun.  The bulk of the predictions made by remain centred around what would happen after we actually left.

Consumer confidence is down, business confidence is down, and we are passing through a transitional period now.  In these six months many companies will now be preparing contingency plans for when Article 50 is invoked which is expected to be early 2017.  The ignorance of all that has come to pass in the last 2 months alone is representative of the ignorance expressed during the campaign.  Those that are working hard to keep this country afloat and pumping in billions are the coders who prevented Y2K - unseen and unacknowledged.  The only difference here is that with Y2K it was all over on January 1st 2000.  Brexit is far from over, we haven't even hit "the millennium moment" yet.