Superstition

Superstition is a strange and unusual thing.  To quote Lydia from Beetlejuice, I myself, am strange and unusual.  I've always had a fascination with superstitions, in particular those relating to numbers.  Whilst I have never delved that deep into Numerology, one thing I have learned is that you can see patterns in anything if you look hard enough, nothing ever appears truly random to us even when we know it is.  Perhaps it is that insistence that nothing truly happens by chance that drives us to believe that superstitions might actually be real.

You are just as likely to win the lottery with the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, as you are with any other 6 numbers chosen at random, yet our brains refuse to accept this and insist the likelihood that such an event would occur is much less likely than any other 6 random numbers.  The truth is that what we are weighing up in that moment is actually selective evidence.  When we consider the two scenarios playing out, unconsciously we bundle every other number combination as one, and single this combination out on its own.  In that scenario, our 6 sequential numbers versus all other combinations it is true that the likelihood it would occur is far less - because we have not compared it against any single permutation but every permutation at all.  To simplify the conjecture would be to say you are more likely to lose than you are to win.  That at least we can accept.

The same is true of superstitions, you're just as likely to have no negative outcome as a result of whatever ominous occurrence you take, as you are to have positive outcomes.  For example if you take the adage that breaking a mirror causes seven years bad luck, you are just as likely to have seven good years, seven bad, or seven neutral, after the fact.  Dismissing cognitive bias which could cause us to fixate on one outcome, in a purely objective analysis of the outcome the act in itself won't influence your life.  Yet these superstitions remain prevalent.

Some superstitions can be traced back to events that became associated with them.  Incidents happening on dates with specific numbers such as the great fire of London in 1666 reinforce the belief that certain numbers - in this case three sixes whenever they appear together, can lead to negative events.  The question is whether the number caused those events, or if those events happening on that date caused the number to become ominous - if the great fire had happened in 1888 would we consider three eights to be a bad omen?

Some superstitions can be traced back to some grain of truth long forgotten.  For example if you take the seven years bad luck for breaking a mirror, some historians have argued this emerged as a result of mercury poisoning.  Mercury is particularly toxic to humans and if small amounts of it enter the bloodstream it can take a long time for it slowly kill the person that has been contaminated by it.  Mirrors in the 1400s were made using glass and Mercury - the former is prone to shattering into shards when broken which can easily cut anyone attempting to clean it up, those cuts can be large or tiny and barely noticeable.  Some have posited then that those who broke mirrors made of mercury and subsequently became poisoned by the mercury, suffered a long period of slow decline in health.  It's easy to see from here where the superstition that breaking a mirror causes bad luck can emerge - the irony is that superstition is actually true and represents not something supernatural at play but rather something that can be explained quite concisely through understanding of medical and chemical sciences.

That last point is what brings me back to the fascination I have with superstition, if some can be found to be based in truth, then perhaps there is also truth behind the others that all have perfectly reasonable explanations we just have not gained a complete understanding thereof.